Markteinblicke

In their latest investment outlook, our Asset Allocation team delve into the ‘time warp’ around an expected recession, arguing we’re not out of the woods just yet.

In their latest investment outlook, our Asset Allocation team discuss the ‘unstable table’ on which US equity market gains have been built in the year to date – and how it’s affecting their positioning.

During the passage from winter to spring, markets have continued to be swayed by the same drama that dominated investor attention in 2022: central bankers’ high-stakes efforts to rein in inflation, without sabotaging financial stability.

In addition to precipitating a devastating humanitarian crisis, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent ripples across markets and raised significant questions for investors over the long term.

In their latest investment outlook, our Asset Allocation team explain why in light of the evolving macroeconomic environment, they now favour selling into strength

Even though 2022 has begun with an abrupt change in the macro narrative, stoked by the Fed, we hold the line on our bullish outlook for risk assets.

As we enter the final months of 2020, we outline why we have become more inclined to buy dips in the equity markets.

The 10 themes our Asset Allocation team will be mulling over before welcoming 2021.

The more things stay the same…

Nervy investors are eyeing top-heavy market-cap indices with suspicion. But how can they use factors to navigate the trade-off between diversification and concentration risk?

We stay bullish on risk assets as we believe the medium term outlook for markets has actually improved

Unfortunately for markets, our bearish outlook for 2018 came to pass. For 2019, the key question is how tightening financial conditions will impact heavily indebted borrowers – and whether this raises the risk of recession.

The economic expansion of the last decade has been a consistent tailwind for financial assets. We see next year as the start of the twilight zone between expansion and an eventual downturn that will likely mark the end of the cycle.

In our last quarterly outlook, we flagged our cautious posture on risk assets, taken due to a number of smouldering risks on the horizon. One risk we did not highlight, however, was that a pandemic would break out, causing untold human suffering and economic damage.

Investors have been buffeted by a large number of negative headlines in 2018. We remain of the view that tightening global liquidity conditions are likely to exacerbate market volatility.

A brief discussion of some of the behavioural biases that can explain factor premia.

Can cyclical tailwinds paper over the structural cracks? And what’s the outlook for global trade, China and equity investors?

While trade tensions have escalated in recent months, we believe the case for emerging markets remains compelling - if investors know where to look.

The consequences of monetary tightening will define the 2018 investment landscape.

In this quarterly outlook we outline our asset allocation views and address three key questions on equities, US monetarypolicy and emerging markets.

What is a fallen angel? In theological terms, a fallen angel is one who has rebelled and been exiled from heaven.

In this quarterly outlook we outline our asset allocation views and address four key questions on wages, sterling, trade and rates.

It’s tempting to think otherwise, but not all emerging market debt is created equal. In this piece we examine the public, private and external debt profiles of individual emerging markets.