Brace for a credit squeeze

Unfortunately for markets, our bearish outlook for 2018 came to pass. For 2019, the key question is how tightening financial conditions will impact heavily indebted borrowers – and whether this raises the risk of recession.

This time last year, I wrote about quantitative tightening, and how the liquidity tide going out would likely reveal structural problems associated with excess debt, deteriorating demographics and poor productivity – ultimately weighing on markets.