Private credit performed well in 2023, with low default rates and plenty of market activity. Will this continue into 2024?
In his annual outlook, Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research Rob Martin considers long-term performance as the combination of structural tailwinds and cyclical opportunities.
As inflation and growth dynamics vie with political risk for investor attention next year, we anticipate fresh volatility – and opportunity – in this higher-rate environment.
We remain cautious on near-term performance at the all-property level, given persistent upward pressure on yields, but some of this pressure has reduced as inflation has decelerated. UK real estate appears closer to the end of its re-pricing journey than in other geographies
A year on from the inflation genie being released from the bottle, inflation is still nowhere near its long-term target level. Against this background, we examine the impact of a ‘higher-for-longer’ environment on private credit.
The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will unleash billions of dollars of funding for climate and clean energy over the next decade. Europe has been under pressure to come up with a similar package - but how will it respond?
In this outlook, we assess why private credit has generally been resilient for the first half of 2023. But as we head into the second half of the year what’s behind the growing divergence between defensive and cyclical issuers?
As the dust begins to settle following a turbulent 2022 and the recent banking crisis, we reflect on the varying dynamics of private credit markets, their differentiation and their role in investor portfolios
As the macroeconomic environment shifts from one of low to higher interest rates, Marija Simpraga assesses how this may affect returns for investors in renewable energy projects.
As 2023 unfolds there remain several plausible outcomes for the performance of UK real estate. In our view, the repricing seen over 2022 positions the sector relatively favourably.
While a recessionary backdrop may mean private credit investors stay cautious in the short term, we believe there are grounds for optimism in 2023, not least higher starting yields.
This past year has been one of the worst periods on record for investors. We assess what could signal a turnaround in 2023.
As delegates gather at COP27, they confront the same long-term challenge posed by climate change as they did last year. But the context has changed dramatically: in light of the war in Ukraine, governments need to balance net-zero goals with a new imperative for energy security.
While investors have typically looked to commodities as an inflation hedge, a lack of income, coupled with volatile prices, has resulted in low risk-adjusted returns. Can direct energy investments help investors guard against rising prices?
Looking back, private markets have experienced robust returns, with 2021 making a high point. Fast forward to this year and the six months to June 2022, and the wider economic and markets environment is barely recognisable.
What might happen in the second half of 2022 in European private credit markets?
In addition to precipitating a devastating humanitarian crisis, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent ripples across markets and raised significant questions for investors over the long term.
While consensus forecasts suggest further economic recovery in 2022, we remain prepared for bumps in the road.
The growth in private markets, helped by institutional participation, has been one of the most prominent investment themes of the past decade.
In this report we focus on consumer-facing sectors as the economy recovers. Understanding trends in consumer behaviour and how they interact with different elements of the real estate universe remains key to positioning investments and favours selected parts of leisure and retail warehousing.
Based on our current expectations for the progression of the pandemic and the associated economic and financial impacts, our central case for all property returns is 5.2% p.a. over the 2021-2025 horizon.
Forecasting the economy and property markets remains very challenging, but since our last update we know more about the economic damage caused by the first wave of the Covid-19 virus
Covid-19 and the resultant economic impacts represent a genuinely unprecedented set of circumstances in which to forecast real estate equity returns.
Those who choose not to embrace this shift could be left behind. Those who challenge convention, embrace technology and change their mindsets to a service oriented model will likely deliver better outcomes for owners and occupiers alike.